ForecastMind
Markets/Over $14M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?
Share on X

Over $14M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?

Closes July 1, 2026

Polymarket Price

83%YES
17%NO

Volume 24h

$14K

Liquidity

$49K

Bid / Ask

79% / 82%

Spread

3.00pp

Expert Signal

83%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Over $6M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?

Full event →
Over $6M committed to the P2P Protocol public
100%
Over $8M committed to the P2P Protocol public
97%
Over $10M committed to the P2P Protocol publi
94%
Over $12M committed to the P2P Protocol publi
90%
Over $14M committed to the P2P Protocol publi
83%
Over $16M committed to the P2P Protocol publi
79%
Over $18M committed to the P2P Protocol publi
79%
Over $20M committed to the P2P Protocol publi
71%
Over $25M committed to the P2P Protocol publi
52%
Over $30M committed to the P2P Protocol publi
47%
Over $35M committed to the P2P Protocol publi
44%
Over $40M committed to the P2P Protocol publi
39%
Over $50M committed to the P2P Protocol publi
30%
Over $60M committed to the P2P Protocol publi
29%
Over $120M committed to the P2P Protocol publ
19%
Over $80M committed to the P2P Protocol publi
17%
Over $100M committed to the P2P Protocol publ
17%
Over $160M committed to the P2P Protocol publ
14%
Over $140M committed to the P2P Protocol publ
6%
Over $200M committed to the P2P Protocol publ
6%
Over $180M committed to the P2P Protocol publ
4%

21 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

+30.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

54% YES

Mar 19, 2026

Trough probability

27% YES — lowest in period

Mar 26, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

45%

Mar 24, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

70%

Mar 26, 2026

Biggest move: +49.0pp

31% → 80%

Mar 26, 2026

Current

84% YES (+8.0pp recent)

Mar 27, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 83%99%
Buy YES@ 83¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 17¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Over $14M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?" at 83% YES / 17% NO. In the last 24 hours, $14K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 83%. The bid-ask spread is 3.00 percentage points. The market closes on July 1, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-27). "Over $14M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 83%, NO 17%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1591770

Correlated Markets

Explore all →
↑ 0.96

Over $16M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?

↑ 0.95

Over $12M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?

↑ 0.92

Over $10M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?

↑ 0.88

Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals?

Go Deeper

⬡

Entity Hub

All related markets, signals, and news in one view.

◎

Forecaster Signals

See all markets where experts diverge from Polymarket prices.

⇄

Venue Divergence

Where Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt disagree most.

~

Correlated Markets

Markets whose prices move with this one.

⊕

Event Cluster

All markets about the same event across venues.

↓

Download 90d CSV

Full price history for your own analysis.