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Markets/Over $16M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?
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Over $16M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?

Closes July 1, 2026

Polymarket Price

77%YES
24%NO

Volume 24h

$15K

Liquidity

$2K

Bid / Ask

74% / 79%

Spread

5.00pp

Expert Signal

77%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Over $6M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?

Full event →
Over $6M committed to the P2P Protocol public
100%
Over $8M committed to the P2P Protocol public
95%
Over $10M committed to the P2P Protocol publi
92%
Over $12M committed to the P2P Protocol publi
89%
Over $14M committed to the P2P Protocol publi
82%
Over $16M committed to the P2P Protocol publi
77%
Over $18M committed to the P2P Protocol publi
72%
Over $20M committed to the P2P Protocol publi
68%
Over $25M committed to the P2P Protocol publi
54%
Over $30M committed to the P2P Protocol publi
44%
Over $35M committed to the P2P Protocol publi
43%
Over $40M committed to the P2P Protocol publi
37%
Over $50M committed to the P2P Protocol publi
33%
Over $60M committed to the P2P Protocol publi
30%
Over $100M committed to the P2P Protocol publ
22%
Over $80M committed to the P2P Protocol publi
18%
Over $120M committed to the P2P Protocol publ
17%
Over $180M committed to the P2P Protocol publ
9%
Over $160M committed to the P2P Protocol publ
7%
Over $140M committed to the P2P Protocol publ
7%
Over $200M committed to the P2P Protocol publ
2%

21 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

+32.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

49% YES

Mar 19, 2026

Trough probability

21% YES — lowest in period

Mar 26, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

51%

Mar 19, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

48%

Mar 24, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

63%

Mar 26, 2026

Biggest move: +52.0pp

26% → 78%

Mar 26, 2026

Current

81% YES (+1.5pp recent)

Mar 27, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 77%99%
Buy YES@ 77¢
Edge

+0.7%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly2.1%
½ Kelly1.1%
Buy NO@ 24¢

-2.1%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+0.7% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 2.1%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Over $16M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?" at 77% YES / 23% NO. In the last 24 hours, $15K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 77%. The bid-ask spread is 5.00 percentage points. The market closes on July 1, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-27). "Over $16M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 77%, NO 23%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1591771

Correlated Markets

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↑ 0.96

Over $14M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?

↑ 0.96

Over $12M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?

↑ 0.93

Over $10M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?

↑ 0.89

Over $8M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?

Go Deeper

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Entity Hub

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Forecaster Signals

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Venue Divergence

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Correlated Markets

Markets whose prices move with this one.

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Event Cluster

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Download 90d CSV

Full price history for your own analysis.