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Markets/Will Fernando Olivera finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
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Will Fernando Olivera finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Closes April 12, 2026

Polymarket Price

1%YES
99%NO

Volume 24h

$382

Liquidity

$3K

Bid / Ask

1% / 1%

Spread

0.40pp

Expert Signal

2%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+66.7pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian…

2026

Full event →
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place
61%
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in first plac
47%
Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in third place in
43%
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second pla
39%
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in th
28%
Will Keiko Fujimori finish in second place in
23%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in seco
18%
Will Romeu Zema finish in third place in the
16%
Will Roberto Chiabra finish in third place in
14%
Will Vladimir Cerrón finish in first place in
13%
Will Alfonso López Chau finish in third place
13%
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in third plac
12%
Will Rafael Belaúnde Llosa finish in first pl
11%
Will Carlos Espá finish in first place in the
11%
Will Enrique Valderrama finish in first place
10%
Will José Williams finish in first place in t
10%
Will Carlos Álvarez finish in first place in
10%
Will Ricardo Belmont finish in first place in
10%
Will Mesías Guevara finish in first place in
10%
Will George Forsyth finish in first place in
10%
Will César Acuña finish in first place in the
9%
Will José Luna finish in first place in the f
9%
Will Fernando Olivera finish in first place i
9%
Will Yonhy Lescano finish in first place in t
9%
Will Roberto Chiabra finish in first place in
9%
Will Fiorella Molinelli finish in first place
8%
Will Wolfgang Grozo finish in third place in
8%
Will Ricardo Belmont finish in third place in
8%
Will Carlos Espá finish in third place in the
8%
Will Wolfgang Grozo finish in first place in
7%
Will Mario Vizcarra finish in third place in
7%
Will Keiko Fujimori finish in third place in
7%
Will César Acuña finish in third place in the
7%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas finish in third plac
6%
Will Mario Vizcarra finish in second place in
6%
Will Jorge Nieto finish in third place in the
6%
Will Jorge Nieto finish in first place in the
6%
Will Carlos Álvarez finish in third place in
6%
Will George Forsyth finish in second place in
5%
Will Renan Santos finish in second place in t
5%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in third place i
5%
Will Alfonso López Chau finish in second plac
5%
Will George Forsyth finish in third place in
5%
Will Enrique Valderrama finish in third place
5%
Will José Williams finish in second place in
4%
Will Fernando Haddad finish in second place i
4%
Will Jorge Nieto finish in second place in th
4%
Will Rafael Belaúnde Llosa finish in third pl
4%
Will Fernando Haddad finish in third place in
4%
Will Fernando Olivera finish in second place
4%
Will Vladimir Cerrón finish in second place i
4%
Will Fiorella Molinelli finish in second plac
4%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in third
4%
Will Rafael Belaúnde Llosa finish in second p
3%
Will César Acuña finish in second place in th
3%
Will José Williams finish in third place in t
3%
the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
3%
Will José Luna finish in third place in the f
3%
Will Yonhy Lescano finish in third place in t
3%
Will Enrique Valderrama finish in second plac
3%
Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in second place in
3%
Will Roberto Chiabra finish in second place i
3%
Will Wolfgang Grozo finish in second place in
3%
Will Yonhy Lescano finish in second place in
3%
Will Carlos Álvarez finish in second place in
3%
Will Fernando Olivera finish in third place i
3%
Will Romeu Zema finish in second place in the
3%
Will Geraldo Alckmin finish in third place in
2%
Will Fiorella Molinelli finish in third place
2%
Will Mesías Guevara finish in second place in
2%
Will Camilo Santana finish in third place in
2%
Will Ricardo Belmont finish in second place i
2%
Will Jair Bolsonaro finish in third place in
1%
Will Mesías Guevara finish in third place in
1%
Will Geraldo Alckmin finish in second place i
1%
Will Vladimir Cerrón finish in third place in
1%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro finish in third place
1%
Will José Luna finish in second place in the
1%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in secon
1%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas finish in second pla
1%
Will Mario Vizcarra finish in first place in
1%
Will Carlos Espá finish in second place in th
1%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro finish in third place
0%
Will Camilo Santana finish in second place in
0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro finish in second plac
0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro finish in second place in
0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro finish in second place
0%

87 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

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Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 1%99%
Buy YES@ 1¢

-16.7%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 99¢
Edge

+0.2%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly16.7%
½ Kelly8.3%
Buy NO—+0.2% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 16.7%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Fernando Olivera finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?" at 1% YES / 99% NO. In the last 24 hours, $382 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.40 percentage points. The market closes on April 12, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-24). "Will Fernando Olivera finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 1%, NO 99%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1656077

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