ForecastMind
Markets/EdgeX FDV above $600M one day after launch?
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EdgeX FDV above $600M one day after launch?

Closes January 1, 2027

Polymarket Price

87%YES
14%NO

Volume 24h

$251K

Liquidity

$25K

Bid / Ask

84% / 87%

Spread

3.00pp

Expert Signal

87%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "EdgeX FDV above $600M one day after launch?" at 87% YES / 13% NO. In the last 24 hours, $251K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 87%. The bid-ask spread is 3.00 percentage points. The market closes on January 1, 2027.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-01). "EdgeX FDV above $600M one day after launch?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 87%, NO 13%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1747838

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+35.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

41% YES

Mar 27, 2026

Trough probability

17% YES — lowest in period

Mar 31, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

64%

Mar 31, 2026

Biggest move: +45.0pp

19% → 64%

Mar 31, 2026

Peak probability

81% YES — highest in period

Mar 31, 2026

Current

76% YES (+15.5pp recent)

Apr 1, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 87%99%
Buy YES@ 87¢
Edge

+0.6%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly3.7%
½ Kelly1.9%
Buy NO@ 14¢

-3.7%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES+0.6% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 3.7%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this