EdgeX FDV above $600M one day after launch?
Closes January 1, 2027
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$251K
Liquidity
$25K
Bid / Ask
84% / 87%
Spread
3.00pp
Expert Signal
87%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "EdgeX FDV above $600M one day after launch?" at 87% YES / 13% NO. In the last 24 hours, $251K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 87%. The bid-ask spread is 3.00 percentage points. The market closes on January 1, 2027.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-01). "EdgeX FDV above $600M one day after launch?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 87%, NO 13%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1747838
This event has 19 active outcome markets. EdgeX FDV above $300M one day after launch?: 100%, EdgeX FDV above $400M one day after launch?: 99%, EdgeX FDV above $500M one day after launch?: 97%.
EdgeX FDV above $600M one day after launch?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
41% YES
Mar 27, 2026
Trough probability
17% YES — lowest in period
Mar 31, 2026
Crossed 50% — now favored YES
64%
Mar 31, 2026
Biggest move: +45.0pp
19% → 64%
Mar 31, 2026
Peak probability
81% YES — highest in period
Mar 31, 2026
Current
76% YES (+15.5pp recent)
Apr 1, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.6%
EV per $ wagered
-3.7%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this