Market Closed
This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 31?
Closed March 31, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$319K
Liquidity
$598K
Bid / Ask
4% / 5%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
2%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Bitcoin Up or Down on March 31?" at 0% YES / 100% NO. In the last 24 hours, $319K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-31). "Bitcoin Up or Down on March 31?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 0%, NO 100%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1777503
This event has 31 active outcome markets. Bitcoin dip to $66,000 March 30-April 5?: 100%, Bitcoin dip to $66,000 on March 31?: 100%, Bitcoin dip to $64,000 March 30-April 5?: 45%.
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 31?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
50% YES
Mar 29, 2026
Trough probability
0% YES — lowest in period
Mar 31, 2026
Crossed 50% — now favored YES
55%
Mar 31, 2026
Biggest move: -29.3pp
32% → 3%
Mar 31, 2026
Current
0% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Mar 31, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this