Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 on April 11?
Closes April 12, 2026
ForecastMind sees this +3.7pp above current market price; market at 11% may be underpriced with macro signals showing BTC +0.9% ↑, ETH +3.2% ↑, S&P -0.2% ↓ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$38K
Liquidity
$13K
Bid / Ask
12% / 13%
Spread
0.90pp
Expert Signal
11%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 on April 11?" at 11% YES / 89% NO. In the last 24 hours, $38K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 11%. The bid-ask spread is 0.90 percentage points. The market closes on April 12, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-11). "Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 on April 11?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 11%, NO 89%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1943706
This event has 22 active outcome markets. Bitcoin reach $73,000 on April 11?: 100%, Bitcoin reach $75,000 in April?: 83%, Bitcoin reach $74,000 April 6-12?: 82%.
Bitcoin reach $75,000 on April 11?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
5% YES
Apr 11, 2026
Biggest move: +5.6pp
4% → 9%
Apr 11, 2026
Current
9% YES (+5.6pp recent)
Apr 11, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.5%
EV per $ wagered
-0.1%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this