Bitcoin Up or Down on April 1?
Closes April 1, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$373K
Liquidity
$34K
Bid / Ask
100% / 100%
Spread
0.10pp
Expert Signal
98%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Bitcoin Up or Down on April 1?" at 100% YES / 0% NO. In the last 24 hours, $373K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 98%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10 percentage points. The market closes on April 1, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-01). "Bitcoin Up or Down on April 1?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 100%, NO 0%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1792441
This event has 27 active outcome markets. price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 1?: 100%, price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 1?: 100%, price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 1?: 100%.
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 1?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
97% YES
Apr 1, 2026
Current
99% YES (+1.9pp recent)
Apr 1, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this