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Markets/Over $14M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?
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Over $14M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?

Closes July 1, 2026

Polymarket Price

80%YES
21%NO

Volume 24h

$11K

Liquidity

$47K

Bid / Ask

74% / 85%

Spread

11.00pp

Expert Signal

80%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Over $1M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?

Full event →
Over $1M committed to the P2P Protocol public
100%
Over $2M committed to the P2P Protocol public
100%
Over $4M committed to the P2P Protocol public
100%
Over $3M committed to the P2P Protocol public
100%
Over $6M committed to the P2P Protocol public
99%
Over $8M committed to the P2P Protocol public
92%
Over $10M committed to the P2P Protocol publi
86%
Over $12M committed to the P2P Protocol publi
81%
Over $14M committed to the P2P Protocol publi
75%
Over $16M committed to the P2P Protocol publi
67%
Over $18M committed to the P2P Protocol publi
66%
Over $20M committed to the P2P Protocol publi
55%
Over $25M committed to the P2P Protocol publi
46%
Over $30M committed to the P2P Protocol publi
40%
Over $35M committed to the P2P Protocol publi
37%
Over $40M committed to the P2P Protocol publi
25%
Over $50M committed to the P2P Protocol publi
23%
Over $60M committed to the P2P Protocol publi
15%
Over $80M committed to the P2P Protocol publi
10%
Over $100M committed to the P2P Protocol publ
7%
Over $120M committed to the P2P Protocol publ
6%
Over $180M committed to the P2P Protocol publ
4%
Over $140M committed to the P2P Protocol publ
4%
Over $160M committed to the P2P Protocol publ
3%
Over $200M committed to the P2P Protocol publ
1%

25 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

+16.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

54% YES

Mar 19, 2026

Trough probability

27% YES — lowest in period

Mar 26, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

45%

Mar 24, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

70%

Mar 26, 2026

Biggest move: +39.5pp

31% → 70%

Mar 26, 2026

Current

70% YES (+30.0pp recent)

Mar 26, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 80%99%
Buy YES@ 80¢
Edge

+0.6%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly2.4%
½ Kelly1.2%
Buy NO@ 20¢

-2.4%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+0.6% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 2.4%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Over $14M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?" at 80% YES / 20% NO. In the last 24 hours, $11K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 80%. The bid-ask spread is 11.00 percentage points. The market closes on July 1, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-26). "Over $14M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 80%, NO 20%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1591770

Correlated Markets

Explore all →
↑ 0.95

Over $12M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?

↑ 0.94

Over $16M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?

↑ 0.91

Over $10M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?

↑ 0.88

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