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Markets/Over $16M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?
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Over $16M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?

Closes July 1, 2026

Polymarket Price

78%YES
23%NO

Volume 24h

$16K

Liquidity

$52K

Bid / Ask

72% / 82%

Spread

10.00pp

Expert Signal

78%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Over $1M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?

Full event →
Over $1M committed to the P2P Protocol public
100%
Over $2M committed to the P2P Protocol public
100%
Over $4M committed to the P2P Protocol public
100%
Over $3M committed to the P2P Protocol public
100%
Over $6M committed to the P2P Protocol public
99%
Over $8M committed to the P2P Protocol public
94%
Over $10M committed to the P2P Protocol publi
91%
Over $12M committed to the P2P Protocol publi
86%
Over $14M committed to the P2P Protocol publi
80%
Over $16M committed to the P2P Protocol publi
78%
Over $18M committed to the P2P Protocol publi
68%
Over $20M committed to the P2P Protocol publi
63%
Over $25M committed to the P2P Protocol publi
56%
Over $30M committed to the P2P Protocol publi
47%
Over $35M committed to the P2P Protocol publi
36%
Over $40M committed to the P2P Protocol publi
28%
Over $50M committed to the P2P Protocol publi
24%
Over $100M committed to the P2P Protocol publ
18%
Over $60M committed to the P2P Protocol publi
14%
Over $80M committed to the P2P Protocol publi
11%
Over $120M committed to the P2P Protocol publ
7%
Over $180M committed to the P2P Protocol publ
5%
Over $140M committed to the P2P Protocol publ
4%
Over $160M committed to the P2P Protocol publ
3%
Over $200M committed to the P2P Protocol publ
1%

25 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

+14.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

49% YES

Mar 19, 2026

Trough probability

21% YES — lowest in period

Mar 26, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

51%

Mar 19, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

48%

Mar 24, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

63%

Mar 26, 2026

Biggest move: +39.0pp

24% → 63%

Mar 26, 2026

Current

63% YES (+27.0pp recent)

Mar 26, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 78%99%
Buy YES@ 78¢
Edge

+0.6%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly2.2%
½ Kelly1.1%
Buy NO@ 22¢

-2.2%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+0.6% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 2.2%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Over $16M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?" at 78% YES / 22% NO. In the last 24 hours, $16K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 78%. The bid-ask spread is 10.00 percentage points. The market closes on July 1, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-26). "Over $16M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 78%, NO 22%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1591771

Correlated Markets

Explore all →
↑ 0.95

Over $12M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?

↑ 0.95

Over $14M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?

↑ 0.92

Over $10M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?

↑ 0.89

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