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Markets/Over $20M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?
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Over $20M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?

Closes July 1, 2026

Polymarket Price

61%YES
40%NO

Volume 24h

$5K

Liquidity

$6K

Bid / Ask

51% / 70%

Spread

19.00pp

Expert Signal

67%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Over $1M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?

Full event →
Over $1M committed to the P2P Protocol public
100%
Over $2M committed to the P2P Protocol public
100%
Over $4M committed to the P2P Protocol public
100%
Over $3M committed to the P2P Protocol public
100%
Over $6M committed to the P2P Protocol public
99%
Over $8M committed to the P2P Protocol public
94%
Over $10M committed to the P2P Protocol publi
91%
Over $12M committed to the P2P Protocol publi
86%
Over $14M committed to the P2P Protocol publi
80%
Over $16M committed to the P2P Protocol publi
78%
Over $18M committed to the P2P Protocol publi
68%
Over $20M committed to the P2P Protocol publi
63%
Over $25M committed to the P2P Protocol publi
56%
Over $30M committed to the P2P Protocol publi
47%
Over $35M committed to the P2P Protocol publi
36%
Over $40M committed to the P2P Protocol publi
28%
Over $50M committed to the P2P Protocol publi
24%
Over $100M committed to the P2P Protocol publ
18%
Over $60M committed to the P2P Protocol publi
14%
Over $80M committed to the P2P Protocol publi
11%
Over $120M committed to the P2P Protocol publ
7%
Over $180M committed to the P2P Protocol publ
5%
Over $140M committed to the P2P Protocol publ
4%
Over $160M committed to the P2P Protocol publ
3%
Over $200M committed to the P2P Protocol publ
1%

25 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

+46.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

21% YES

Mar 26, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

65%

Mar 26, 2026

Biggest move: +24.0pp

25% → 49%

Mar 26, 2026

Current

67% YES (+1.5pp recent)

Mar 26, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 61%99%
Buy YES@ 61¢
Edge

+0.8%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly1.3%
½ Kelly0.6%
Buy NO@ 40¢

-1.3%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+0.8% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 1.3%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Over $20M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?" at 61% YES / 39% NO. In the last 24 hours, $5K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 67%. The bid-ask spread is 19.00 percentage points. The market closes on July 1, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-26). "Over $20M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 61%, NO 39%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1591773

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Correlated Markets

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