ForecastMind
Markets/Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on March 31?
Share on X

Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on March 31?

Closes April 1, 2026

Polymarket Price

3%YES
97%NO

Volume 24h

$18K

Liquidity

$11K

Bid / Ask

1% / 2%

Spread

1.20pp

Expert Signal

3%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on March 31?" at 3% YES / 97% NO. In the last 24 hours, $18K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 3%. The bid-ask spread is 1.20 percentage points. The market closes on April 1, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-31). "Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on March 31?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 3%, NO 97%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1800071

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

-11.4pp

Key Moments

First recorded

15% YES

Mar 31, 2026

Biggest move: -6.4pp

19% → 13%

Mar 31, 2026

Current

3% YES (-5.0pp recent)

Mar 31, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 3%99%
Buy YES@ 3¢
Edge

+11.1%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.3%
½ Kelly0.2%
Buy NO@ 97¢

-0.3%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES+11.1% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.3%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this