Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 on April 12?
Closes April 13, 2026
Markets appear correctly priced with macro signals showing BTC -2.5% ↓, ETH -3.4% ↓, S&P -0.2% ↓ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$2K
Liquidity
$14K
Bid / Ask
1% / 3%
Spread
1.50pp
Expert Signal
2%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 on April 12?" at 2% YES / 98% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 1.50 percentage points. The market closes on April 13, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-12). "Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 on April 12?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 2%, NO 98%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1953281
This event has 26 active outcome markets. Bitcoin reach $75,000 in April?: 53%, Bitcoin reach $72,000 on April 12?: 43%, Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?: 14%.
Bitcoin reach $74,000 on April 12?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
2% YES
Apr 12, 2026
Current
2% YES (-0.2pp recent)
Apr 12, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-2.4%
EV per $ wagered
+0.1%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this