Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 April 6-12?
Closes April 13, 2026
Markets appear correctly priced with macro signals showing ETH +0.3% ↑, S&P +0.2% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$17K
Liquidity
$43K
Bid / Ask
4% / 4%
Spread
0.20pp
Expert Signal
4%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 April 6-12?" at 4% YES / 96% NO. In the last 24 hours, $17K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 4%. The bid-ask spread is 0.20 percentage points. The market closes on April 13, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-07). "Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 April 6-12?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 4%, NO 96%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1885993
This event has 23 active outcome markets. Bitcoin reach $75,000 in April?: 43%, Bitcoin reach $72,000 April 6-12?: 42%, Bitcoin reach $74,000 April 6-12?: 17%.
Bitcoin reach $78,000 April 6-12?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
4% YES
Apr 6, 2026
Current
3% YES (-0.6pp recent)
Apr 7, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+8.1%
EV per $ wagered
-0.3%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this