Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on April 14?
Closes April 15, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$32K
Liquidity
$14K
Bid / Ask
1% / 2%
Spread
1.10pp
Expert Signal
3%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on April 14?" at 2% YES / 98% NO. In the last 24 hours, $32K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 3%. The bid-ask spread is 1.10 percentage points. The market closes on April 15, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-14). "Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on April 14?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 2%, NO 98%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1976967
This event has 27 active outcome markets. December 31, 2026: 80%, Solana reach $90 in April?: 55%, Bitcoin reach $78,000 April 13-19?: 31%.
Bitcoin reach $78,000 on April 14?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
4% YES
Apr 14, 2026
Current
2% YES (-1.1pp recent)
Apr 14, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+17.6%
EV per $ wagered
-0.3%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this