Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Closes April 12, 2026
Markets appear correctly priced with macro signals showing VIX +1.1% ↑, S&P +0.2% ↑, DXY -0.1% ↓ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$15K
Liquidity
$15K
Bid / Ask
76% / 77%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
77%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?" at 77% YES / 23% NO. In the last 24 hours, $15K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 77%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 12, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-07). "Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 77%, NO 23%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1656638
This event has 31 active outcome markets. Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the f: 77%, Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in th: 65%, Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in: 25%.
Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
70% YES
Apr 6, 2026
Biggest move: +7.5pp
70% → 77%
Apr 7, 2026
Peak probability
77% YES — highest in period
Apr 7, 2026
Current
77% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Apr 7, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this