Will Mesías Guevara finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Closes April 12, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$1K
Liquidity
$9K
Expert Signal
2%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Mesías Guevara finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?" at 0% YES / 100% NO. In the last 24 hours, $1K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The market closes on April 12, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-07). "Will Mesías Guevara finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 0%, NO 100%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1656655
This event has 31 active outcome markets. Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the f: 77%, Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in th: 65%, Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in: 25%.
Mesías Guevara finish in first place in the first round
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
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Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
0% YES
Apr 6, 2026
Current
0% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Apr 7, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this