Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?
Closes December 31, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$1K
Liquidity
$10K
Bid / Ask
38% / 45%
Spread
7.00pp
Expert Signal
41%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?" at 41% YES / 59% NO. In the last 24 hours, $1K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 41%. The bid-ask spread is 7.00 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-03). "Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 41%, NO 59%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/666659
This event has 9 active outcome markets. Kash Patel leave the Trump administration bef: 76%, Tulsi Gabbard leave the Trump administration : 66%, Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration be: 59%.
Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
41% YES
Apr 3, 2026
Current
40% YES (-1.0pp recent)
Apr 3, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
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EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this