Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Closes April 12, 2026
Markets appear correctly priced with macro signals showing VIX +1.1% ↑, S&P +0.2% ↑, DXY -0.1% ↓ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$6K
Liquidity
$13K
Bid / Ask
4% / 6%
Spread
2.30pp
Expert Signal
5%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?" at 5% YES / 95% NO. In the last 24 hours, $6K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 5%. The bid-ask spread is 2.30 percentage points. The market closes on April 12, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-07). "Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 5%, NO 95%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1656637
This event has 31 active outcome markets. Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the f: 77%, Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in th: 65%, Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in: 25%.
Rafael López Aliaga finish in first place in the first
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
6% YES
Apr 6, 2026
Current
5% YES (+1.0pp recent)
Apr 7, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-5.7%
EV per $ wagered
+0.3%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this