Will Ricardo Belmont finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Closes April 12, 2026
Markets appear correctly priced with macro signals showing VIX +1.1% ↑, S&P +0.2% ↑, DXY -0.1% ↓ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$8K
Liquidity
$12K
Bid / Ask
3% / 4%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
4%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Ricardo Belmont finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?" at 4% YES / 96% NO. In the last 24 hours, $8K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 4%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 12, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-07). "Will Ricardo Belmont finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 4%, NO 96%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1656650
This event has 31 active outcome markets. Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the f: 77%, Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in th: 65%, Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in: 25%.
Ricardo Belmont finish in first place in the first roun
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
4% YES
Apr 6, 2026
Current
3% YES (-0.2pp recent)
Apr 7, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+5.3%
EV per $ wagered
-0.2%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this