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Markets/Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 9?
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Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 9?

Closes April 9, 2026

ForecastMind Intelligence Score
Low confidence · 1 signal
49%FIS
+7ppvs market 43%
underpriced

ForecastMind sees this +6.9pp above current market price; market at 42% may be underpriced with macro signals showing BTC +1.4% ↑, ETH +3.6% ↑, S&P +2.9% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).

Signal breakdown

MacroBTC +1.4% ↑, ETH +3.6% ↑, S&P +2.9% ↑
+6.9pp
Live compute02:54 AM

Polymarket Price

43%YES
57%NO

Volume 24h

$27K

Liquidity

$25K

Bid / Ask

37% / 38%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

43%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.7pp
confidence50%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 9?" at 43% YES / 57% NO. In the last 24 hours, $27K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 43%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 9, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-08). "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 9?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 43%, NO 57%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1831449

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+37.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

6% YES

Apr 7, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

50%

Apr 8, 2026

Biggest move: +21.0pp

20% → 41%

Apr 7, 2026

Peak probability

50% YES — highest in period

Apr 8, 2026

Current

43% YES (-6.5pp recent)

Apr 8, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 43%99%
Buy YES@ 43¢
Edge

+1.2%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.9%
½ Kelly0.4%
Buy NO@ 57¢

-0.9%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES+1.2% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.9%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this