Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 9?
Closes April 9, 2026
Markets appear correctly priced with macro signals showing BTC -0.2% ↓, ETH -0.5% ↓, S&P +0.1% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$11K
Liquidity
$25K
Bid / Ask
2% / 3%
Spread
0.60pp
Expert Signal
2%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 9?" at 2% YES / 98% NO. In the last 24 hours, $11K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.60 percentage points. The market closes on April 9, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-07). "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 9?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 2%, NO 98%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1831451
This event has 38 active outcome markets. price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 7?: 100%, price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 7?: 100%, price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 7?: 100%.
price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 9?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-14.9%
EV per $ wagered
+0.4%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this