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Markets/Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 9?
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Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 9?

Closes April 9, 2026

ForecastMind Intelligence Score
Low confidence · 1 signal
91%FIS
4ppvs market 95%
overpriced

ForecastMind sees this -3.8pp below current market price; market at 95% may be overpriced with macro signals showing BTC -1.1% ↓, ETH -1.4% ↓, S&P -0.1% ↓ (low confidence — limited signal data).

Signal breakdown

MacroBTC -1.1% ↓, ETH -1.4% ↓, S&P -0.1% ↓
-3.8pp
Live compute04:16 PM

Polymarket Price

96%YES
4%NO

Volume 24h

$17K

Liquidity

$26K

Bid / Ask

95% / 96%

Spread

0.70pp

Expert Signal

96%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 9?" at 96% YES / 4% NO. In the last 24 hours, $17K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 96%. The bid-ask spread is 0.70 percentage points. The market closes on April 9, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-07). "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 9?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 96%, NO 4%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1831439

Outcome Markets38 markets

This event has 38 active outcome markets. price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 7?: 100%, price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 7?: 100%, price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 7?: 100%.

price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 9?

96%

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+1.1pp

Key Moments

First recorded

93% YES

Apr 7, 2026

Current

94% YES (+0.9pp recent)

Apr 7, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 96%99%
Buy YES@ 96¢
Edge

+0.4%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly9.1%
½ Kelly4.5%
Buy NO@ 4¢

-9.1%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES+0.4% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 9.1%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this