Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 12?
Closes April 12, 2026
ForecastMind sees this +5.8pp above current market price; market at 30% may be underpriced with macro signals showing BTC +2.0% ↑, ETH +2.9% ↑, S&P -0.2% ↓ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$21K
Liquidity
$24K
Expert Signal
30%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 12?" at 20% YES / 80% NO. In the last 24 hours, $21K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 30%. The market closes on April 12, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-11). "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 12?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 20%, NO 80%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1879424
This event has 38 active outcome markets. price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 10: 100%, price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 10: 100%, price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 10: 100%.
price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 12?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
25% YES
Apr 10, 2026
Biggest move: -6.7pp
28% → 21%
Apr 10, 2026
Current
21% YES (-0.3pp recent)
Apr 11, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-0.2%
EV per $ wagered
+0.1%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this