Will the US x Iran ceasefire be extended by April 14, 2026?
Closes April 21, 2026
ForecastMind sees this -2.0pp below current market price; market at 6% may be overpriced with macro signals showing Oil -1.2% ↓, VIX -1.3% ↓.
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$159K
Liquidity
$54K
Bid / Ask
3% / 4%
Spread
0.30pp
Expert Signal
3%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will the US x Iran ceasefire be extended by April 14, 2026?" at 2% YES / 98% NO. In the last 24 hours, $159K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 3%. The bid-ask spread is 0.30 percentage points. The market closes on April 21, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-14). "Will the US x Iran ceasefire be extended by April 14, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 2%, NO 98%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1918790
This event has 7 active outcome markets. April 21, 2026: 43%, April 30, 2026: 14%, April 10, 2026: 9%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~18%.
US x Iran ceasefire be extended by April 14, 2026?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
20% YES
Apr 12, 2026
Trough probability
1% YES — lowest in period
Apr 14, 2026
Biggest move: -6.0pp
20% → 14%
Apr 12, 2026
Current
2% YES (+0.5pp recent)
Apr 14, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+21.2%
EV per $ wagered
-0.4%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this