Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 6?
Closes April 6, 2026
ForecastMind sees this +0.7pp above current market price; market at 86% may be underpriced with macro signals showing BTC +0.3% ↑, ETH +0.9% ↑, S&P +0.2% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$197K
Liquidity
$37K
Bid / Ask
95% / 96%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
93%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 6?" at 94% YES / 6% NO. In the last 24 hours, $197K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 93%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 6, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-06). "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 6?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 94%, NO 6%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1792520
This event has 25 active outcome markets. price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on April 6?: 100%, price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 6?: 100%, price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 6?: 100%.
price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 6?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
42% YES
Mar 30, 2026
Trough probability
20% YES — lowest in period
Apr 5, 2026
Crossed 50% — now favored YES
53%
Mar 31, 2026
Dropped below 50% — now favored NO
49%
Apr 1, 2026
Dropped below 50% — now favored NO
44%
Apr 2, 2026
Crossed 50% — now favored YES
52%
Apr 5, 2026
Biggest move: +46.0pp
30% → 76%
Apr 6, 2026
Current
93% YES (+3.0pp recent)
Apr 6, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.5%
EV per $ wagered
-7.7%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this