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Markets/Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 6?
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Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 6?

Closes April 6, 2026

Polymarket Price

5%YES
95%NO

Volume 24h

$41K

Liquidity

$24K

Bid / Ask

4% / 5%

Spread

0.90pp

Expert Signal

4%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 6?" at 5% YES / 95% NO. In the last 24 hours, $41K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 4%. The bid-ask spread is 0.90 percentage points. The market closes on April 6, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-04). "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 6?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 5%, NO 95%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1792523

Outcome Markets35 markets

This event has 35 active outcome markets. price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 4?: 100%, price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 4?: 100%, price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on April 4?: 100%.

price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 6?

5%

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-0.3pp

Key Moments

First recorded

4% YES

Apr 4, 2026

Current

4% YES (-1.0pp recent)

Apr 4, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 5%99%
Buy YES@ 5¢
Edge

+3.1%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.2%
½ Kelly0.1%
Buy NO@ 95¢

-0.2%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES+3.1% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.2%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this