Will Trump say "Oil" or "Gas" 3+ times during Address to the Nation?
Closes April 1, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$18K
Liquidity
$6K
Bid / Ask
73% / 76%
Spread
3.00pp
Expert Signal
73%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Trump say "Oil" or "Gas" 3+ times during Address to the Nation?" at 73% YES / 27% NO. In the last 24 hours, $18K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 73%. The bid-ask spread is 3.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 1, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-01). "Will Trump say "Oil" or "Gas" 3+ times during Address to the Nation?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 73%, NO 27%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1813636
This event has 27 active outcome markets. Trump say "Nuclear" during Address to the Nat: 97%, Trump say "Hormuz" during Address to the Nati: 92%, Trump say "NATO" during Address to the Nation: 91%.
Trump say "Oil" or "Gas" 3+ times during Address to the
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
86% YES
Apr 1, 2026
Biggest move: -7.5pp
80% → 72%
Apr 1, 2026
Current
72% YES (-7.5pp recent)
Apr 1, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.7%
EV per $ wagered
-1.8%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this