ForecastMind

Market Closed

This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.

Markets/Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Address to the Nation?
Share on X

Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Address to the Nation?

Closed April 1, 2026

Polymarket Price

2%YES
98%NO

Volume 24h

$279K

Liquidity

$97K

Bid / Ask

2% / 2%

Spread

0.40pp

Expert Signal

2%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+21.2pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Address to the Nation?" at 2% YES / 98% NO. In the last 24 hours, $279K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.40 percentage points. The market closes on April 1, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-01). "Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Address to the Nation?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 2%, NO 98%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1813651

Outcome Markets25 markets

This event has 25 active outcome markets. Trump say "Nuclear" during Address to the Nat: 98%, Trump say "NATO" during Address to the Nation: 92%, Trump say "Hormuz" during Address to the Nati: 90%.

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-4.2pp

Key Moments

First recorded

6% YES

Apr 1, 2026

Current

2% YES (-0.1pp recent)

Apr 1, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 2%99%
Buy YES@ 2¢
Edge

+21.2%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.4%
½ Kelly0.2%
Buy NO@ 98¢

-0.4%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES+21.2% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.4%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this