Will Trump say "Khamenei" or "Khomeini" during Address to the Nation?
Closes April 1, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$16K
Liquidity
$5K
Bid / Ask
38% / 40%
Spread
2.00pp
Expert Signal
38%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Trump say "Khamenei" or "Khomeini" during Address to the Nation?" at 38% YES / 62% NO. In the last 24 hours, $16K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 38%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 1, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-01). "Will Trump say "Khamenei" or "Khomeini" during Address to the Nation?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 38%, NO 62%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1813645
This event has 27 active outcome markets. Trump say "Nuclear" during Address to the Nat: 97%, Trump say "Hormuz" during Address to the Nati: 92%, Trump say "NATO" during Address to the Nation: 91%.
Trump say "Khamenei" or "Khomeini" during Address to th
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
40% YES
Apr 1, 2026
Biggest move: -10.5pp
43% → 33%
Apr 1, 2026
Current
33% YES (-10.5pp recent)
Apr 1, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+1.3%
EV per $ wagered
-0.8%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this