ForecastMind

Market Closed

This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.

Markets/Will Trump say "Objective" or "Goal" 3+ times during Address to the Nation?
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Will Trump say "Objective" or "Goal" 3+ times during Address to the Nation?

Closed April 1, 2026

Polymarket Price

71%YES
30%NO

Volume 24h

$8K

Liquidity

$2K

Bid / Ask

70% / 72%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

70%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market-0.4pp
confidence50%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Trump say "Objective" or "Goal" 3+ times during Address to the Nation?" at 71% YES / 29% NO. In the last 24 hours, $8K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 70%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 1, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-01). "Will Trump say "Objective" or "Goal" 3+ times during Address to the Nation?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 71%, NO 29%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1813637

Outcome Markets27 markets

This event has 27 active outcome markets. Trump say "Nuclear" during Address to the Nat: 98%, Trump say "NATO" during Address to the Nation: 91%, Trump say "Hormuz" during Address to the Nati: 90%.

Trump say "Objective" or "Goal" 3+ times during Address

71%

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+5.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

65% YES

Apr 1, 2026

Peak probability

72% YES — highest in period

Apr 1, 2026

Current

70% YES (-1.5pp recent)

Apr 1, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 71%99%
Buy YES@ 71¢
Edge

+0.7%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly1.7%
½ Kelly0.8%
Buy NO@ 30¢

-1.7%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES+0.7% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 1.7%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this