Market Closed
This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.
Will Trump say "Hormuz" during Address to the Nation?
Closed April 1, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$59K
Liquidity
$11K
Bid / Ask
89% / 91%
Spread
2.30pp
Expert Signal
91%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Trump say "Hormuz" during Address to the Nation?" at 91% YES / 9% NO. In the last 24 hours, $59K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 91%. The bid-ask spread is 2.30 percentage points. The market closes on April 1, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-01). "Will Trump say "Hormuz" during Address to the Nation?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 91%, NO 9%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1813644
This event has 27 active outcome markets. Trump say "Nuclear" during Address to the Nat: 97%, Trump say "Hormuz" during Address to the Nati: 91%, Trump say "NATO" during Address to the Nation: 91%.
Trump say "Hormuz" during Address to the Nation?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
80% YES
Apr 1, 2026
Biggest move: +11.8pp
75% → 87%
Apr 1, 2026
Current
91% YES (+3.9pp recent)
Apr 1, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
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EV per $ wagered
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EV per $ wagered
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Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this