Market Closed
This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.
Will Trump say "Regime Change" during Address to the Nation?
Closed April 1, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$13K
Liquidity
$4K
Bid / Ask
53% / 55%
Spread
2.00pp
Expert Signal
63%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Trump say "Regime Change" during Address to the Nation?" at 64% YES / 36% NO. In the last 24 hours, $13K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 63%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 1, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-01). "Will Trump say "Regime Change" during Address to the Nation?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 64%, NO 36%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1816041
This event has 27 active outcome markets. Trump say "Nuclear" during Address to the Nat: 97%, Trump say "Hormuz" during Address to the Nati: 92%, Trump say "NATO" during Address to the Nation: 91%.
Trump say "Regime Change" during Address to the Nation?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
69% YES
Apr 1, 2026
Trough probability
60% YES — lowest in period
Apr 1, 2026
Biggest move: +6.0pp
60% → 66%
Apr 1, 2026
Current
63% YES (-3.0pp recent)
Apr 1, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.8%
EV per $ wagered
-1.4%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this