ForecastMind

Market Closed

This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.

Markets/Will Trump say "Operation Epic Fury" during Address to the Nation?
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Will Trump say "Operation Epic Fury" during Address to the Nation?

Closed April 1, 2026

Polymarket Price

90%YES
10%NO

Volume 24h

$27K

Liquidity

$10K

Bid / Ask

89% / 90%

Spread

0.80pp

Expert Signal

89%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market-0.2pp
confidence50%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Trump say "Operation Epic Fury" during Address to the Nation?" at 90% YES / 10% NO. In the last 24 hours, $27K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 89%. The bid-ask spread is 0.80 percentage points. The market closes on April 1, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-01). "Will Trump say "Operation Epic Fury" during Address to the Nation?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 90%, NO 10%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1813638

Outcome Markets27 markets

This event has 27 active outcome markets. Trump say "Nuclear" during Address to the Nat: 98%, Trump say "NATO" during Address to the Nation: 91%, Trump say "Hormuz" during Address to the Nati: 90%.

Trump say "Operation Epic Fury" during Address to the N

90%

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+2.9pp

Key Moments

First recorded

89% YES

Apr 1, 2026

Current

92% YES (+4.2pp recent)

Apr 1, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 90%99%
Buy YES@ 90¢
Edge

+0.4%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly3.8%
½ Kelly1.9%
Buy NO@ 10¢

-3.8%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES+0.4% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 3.8%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this