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Markets/Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on April 2?
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Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on April 2?

Closes April 3, 2026

Polymarket Price

27%YES
74%NO

Volume 24h

$9K

Liquidity

$7K

Bid / Ask

24% / 29%

Spread

5.00pp

Expert Signal

27%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on April 2?" at 27% YES / 73% NO. In the last 24 hours, $9K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 27%. The bid-ask spread is 5.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 3, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-02). "Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on April 2?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 27%, NO 73%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1823954

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+17.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

21% YES

Apr 2, 2026

Biggest move: +22.0pp

16% → 38%

Apr 2, 2026

Current

38% YES (+22.0pp recent)

Apr 2, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 27%99%
Buy YES@ 27¢
Edge

+1.9%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.7%
½ Kelly0.3%
Buy NO@ 74¢

-0.7%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES+1.9% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.7%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this