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Markets/Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 9?
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Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 9?

Closes April 9, 2026

ForecastMind Intelligence Score
Low confidence · 1 signal
12%FIS
1ppvs market 13%
overpriced

ForecastMind sees this -1.4pp below current market price; market at 13% may be overpriced with macro signals showing BTC -0.4% ↓, ETH -0.5% ↓, S&P -0.1% ↓ (low confidence — limited signal data).

Signal breakdown

MacroBTC -0.4% ↓, ETH -0.5% ↓, S&P -0.1% ↓
-1.4pp
Pre-computed · refreshes every 6h04:34 AM

Polymarket Price

13%YES
88%NO

Volume 24h

$123K

Liquidity

$33K

Bid / Ask

10% / 11%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

13%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 9?" at 13% YES / 87% NO. In the last 24 hours, $123K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 13%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 9, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-09). "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 9?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 13%, NO 87%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1831449

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-35.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

50% YES

Apr 2, 2026

Trough probability

5% YES — lowest in period

Apr 3, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

11%

Apr 2, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

50%

Apr 8, 2026

Biggest move: -40.0pp

50% → 10%

Apr 2, 2026

Current

14% YES (+2.0pp recent)

Apr 9, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 13%99%
Buy YES@ 13¢
Edge

+4.0%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.6%
½ Kelly0.3%
Buy NO@ 88¢

-0.6%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES+4.0% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.6%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this