Will Trump say "Moon" this week? (April 12)
Closes April 12, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$583
Liquidity
$328
Bid / Ask
73% / 100%
Spread
26.80pp
Expert Signal
98%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Trump say "Moon" this week? (April 12)" at 98% YES / 2% NO. In the last 24 hours, $583 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 98%. The bid-ask spread is 26.80 percentage points. The market closes on April 12, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-07). "Will Trump say "Moon" this week? (April 12)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 98%, NO 2%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1847724
This event has 11 active outcome markets. Trump say "Moon" this week? (April 12): 98%, Trump say "Make America Great Again" this wee: 98%, Trump say "Two weeks" this week? (April 12): 85%.
Trump say "Moon" this week? (April 12)
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-0.3%
EV per $ wagered
+17.6%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this