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Markets/Will Trump say "Predict" or "Prediction" or "Predicted" this week? (April 12)
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Will Trump say "Predict" or "Prediction" or "Predicted" this week? (April 12)

Closes April 12, 2026

Polymarket Price

68%YES
33%NO

Volume 24h

$87

Liquidity

$166

Bid / Ask

44% / 91%

Spread

47.00pp

Expert Signal

68%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Trump say "Predict" or "Prediction" or "Predicted" this week? (April 12)" at 68% YES / 32% NO. In the last 24 hours, $87 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 68%. The bid-ask spread is 47.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 12, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-07). "Will Trump say "Predict" or "Prediction" or "Predicted" this week? (April 12)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 68%, NO 32%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1847729

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

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Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 68%99%
Buy YES@ 68¢
Edge

+0.7%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly1.5%
½ Kelly0.8%
Buy NO@ 32¢

-1.5%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES+0.7% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 1.5%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this