ForecastMind
Markets/Will Trump say "King Charles" this week? (April 12)
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Will Trump say "King Charles" this week? (April 12)

Closes April 12, 2026

Polymarket Price

53%YES
48%NO

Volume 24h

$83

Liquidity

$173

Bid / Ask

26% / 79%

Spread

53.00pp

Expert Signal

53%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Trump say "King Charles" this week? (April 12)" at 53% YES / 47% NO. In the last 24 hours, $83 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 53%. The bid-ask spread is 53.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 12, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-07). "Will Trump say "King Charles" this week? (April 12)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 53%, NO 47%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1847731

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

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Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 53%99%
Buy YES@ 53¢
Edge

+1.0%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly1.1%
½ Kelly0.5%
Buy NO@ 48¢

-1.1%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES+1.0% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 1.1%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this