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Markets/Will Trump say "Common Sense" or "Commonsense" this week? (April 12)
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Will Trump say "Common Sense" or "Commonsense" this week? (April 12)

Closes April 12, 2026

Polymarket Price

80%YES
20%NO

Volume 24h

$2K

Liquidity

$305

Bid / Ask

73% / 88%

Spread

15.00pp

Expert Signal

80%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Trump say "Common Sense" or "Commonsense" this week? (April 12)" at 80% YES / 20% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 80%. The bid-ask spread is 15.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 12, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-08). "Will Trump say "Common Sense" or "Commonsense" this week? (April 12)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 80%, NO 20%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1847738

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+0.0pp

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 80%99%
Buy YES@ 80¢

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EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 20¢

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EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this