ForecastMind
Markets/Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 17?
Share on X

Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 17?

Closes April 17, 2026

ForecastMind Intelligence Score
Low confidence · 1 signal
8%FIS
2ppvs market 10%
overpriced

ForecastMind sees this -1.6pp below current market price; market at 10% may be overpriced with macro signals showing BTC -0.4% ↓, ETH -2.3% ↓, S&P +1.2% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).

Signal breakdown

MacroBTC -0.4% ↓, ETH -2.3% ↓, S&P +1.2% ↑
-1.6pp
Live compute08:33 PM

Polymarket Price

10%YES
90%NO

Volume 24h

$643

Liquidity

$17K

Bid / Ask

9% / 10%

Spread

0.80pp

Expert Signal

5%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market-51.8pp
confidence40%
methodbayesian

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 17?" at 10% YES / 90% NO. In the last 24 hours, $643 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 5%. The bid-ask spread is 0.80 percentage points. The market closes on April 17, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-14). "Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 17?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 10%, NO 90%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1938129

Outcome Markets32 markets

This event has 32 active outcome markets. price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on April 16: 100%, price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on April 15: 100%, price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on April 15: 100%.

price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 17?

10%

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

No historical data yet

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 10%99%
Buy YES@ 10¢
Edge

+4.2%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.4%
½ Kelly0.2%
Buy NO@ 90¢

-0.4%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES+4.2% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.4%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this