Markets/US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?

Data as of Apr 14, 2026, 05:22 PM UTC

Closes April 30, 2026

ForecastMind Intelligence Score

Medium confidence · 2 signals

76%FIS

−3ppvs market 78%

overpriced

ForecastMind sees this -2.5pp below current market price; market at 78% may be overpriced with macro signals showing Oil -1.9% ↓, VIX -4.7% ↓, Gold +0.5% ↑.

Signal breakdown

MacroOil -1.9% ↓, VIX -4.7% ↓, Gold +0.5% ↑

-4.8pp

HistoryISR positive AGR → -1.0pp avg (n=64) [recent event]

-1.0pp

Live compute01:57 PM

Polymarket Price

78%YES

22%NO

Volume 24h

$50K

Liquidity

$22K

Bid / Ask

77% / 80%

Spread

3.00pp

Expert Signal

78%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.4pp

confidence50%

methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?" at 78% YES / 22% NO. In the last 24 hours, $50K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 78%. The bid-ask spread is 3.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-14). "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 78%, NO 22%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1959319

Outcome Markets10 markets

This event has 10 active outcome markets. April 30, 2026: 83%, April 22, 2026: 78%, April 21, 2026: 69%.