Will Scott Bessent leave the Trump administration before 2027?
Closes December 31, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$411
Liquidity
$11K
Bid / Ask
13% / 19%
Spread
6.00pp
Expert Signal
17%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Scott Bessent leave the Trump administration before 2027?" at 17% YES / 83% NO. In the last 24 hours, $411 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 17%. The bid-ask spread is 6.00 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-06). "Will Scott Bessent leave the Trump administration before 2027?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 17%, NO 83%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/666661
This event has 14 active outcome markets. Tulsi Gabbard leave the Trump administration : 65%, Kash Patel leave the Trump administration bef: 57%, Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration: 55%.
Scott Bessent leave the Trump administration before 202
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+3.0%
EV per $ wagered
-0.6%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this