Bitcoin Up or Down on April 6?
Closes April 6, 2026
ForecastMind sees this +0.7pp above current market price; market at 94% may be underpriced with macro signals showing BTC +0.3% ↑, ETH +0.9% ↑, S&P +0.2% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$183K
Liquidity
$36K
Bid / Ask
99% / 99%
Spread
0.30pp
Expert Signal
98%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Bitcoin Up or Down on April 6?" at 98% YES / 2% NO. In the last 24 hours, $183K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 98%. The bid-ask spread is 0.30 percentage points. The market closes on April 6, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-06). "Bitcoin Up or Down on April 6?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 98%, NO 2%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1862450
This event has 26 active outcome markets. price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on April 6?: 100%, price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 6?: 100%, price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 6?: 100%.
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 6?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
98% YES
Apr 6, 2026
Current
98% YES (-0.1pp recent)
Apr 6, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-0.5%
EV per $ wagered
+29.0%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this