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Markets/Over $10M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?

Over $10M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?

Data as of Mar 26, 2026, 08:53 PM UTC

Closes July 1, 2026

Polymarket Price

89%YES

11%NO

Volume 24h

$47K

Liquidity

$65K

Bid / Ask

90% / 92%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

89%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Over $1M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?

Over $1M committed to the P2P Protocol public

Over $2M committed to the P2P Protocol public

Over $4M committed to the P2P Protocol public

Over $3M committed to the P2P Protocol public

Over $6M committed to the P2P Protocol public

Over $8M committed to the P2P Protocol public

Over $10M committed to the P2P Protocol publi

89%

Over $12M committed to the P2P Protocol publi

Over $14M committed to the P2P Protocol publi

Over $16M committed to the P2P Protocol publi

Over $18M committed to the P2P Protocol publi

Over $20M committed to the P2P Protocol publi

Over $25M committed to the P2P Protocol publi

Over $30M committed to the P2P Protocol publi

Over $35M committed to the P2P Protocol publi

Over $40M committed to the P2P Protocol publi

Over $50M committed to the P2P Protocol publi

Over $60M committed to the P2P Protocol publi

Over $80M committed to the P2P Protocol publi

Over $100M committed to the P2P Protocol publ

Over $120M committed to the P2P Protocol publ

Over $180M committed to the P2P Protocol publ

Over $140M committed to the P2P Protocol publ

Over $160M committed to the P2P Protocol publ

Over $200M committed to the P2P Protocol publ

25 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

Price History

+19.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

61% YES

Mar 19, 2026

Trough probability

32% YES — lowest in period

Mar 26, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

37%

Mar 26, 2026

Biggest move: +40.0pp

40% → 80%

Mar 26, 2026

Current

80% YES (+30.5pp recent)

Mar 26, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

%

1%Market: YES 89%99%

Buy YES@ 89¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 11¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Over $10M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?" at 89% YES / 11% NO. In the last 24 hours, $47K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 89%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on July 1, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-26). "Over $10M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 89%, NO 11%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1591768

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Over $14M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?

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Forecaster Signals

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Venue Divergence

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Correlated Markets

Markets whose prices move with this one.

Event Cluster

All markets about the same event across venues.

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