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Markets/Over $12M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?
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Over $12M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?

Closes July 1, 2026

Polymarket Price

60%YES
40%NO

Volume 24h

$20K

Liquidity

$4K

Bid / Ask

56% / 67%

Spread

11.00pp

Expert Signal

60%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Over $1M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?

Full event →
Over $1M committed to the P2P Protocol public
100%
Over $2M committed to the P2P Protocol public
100%
Over $3M committed to the P2P Protocol public
100%
Over $4M committed to the P2P Protocol public
100%
Over $6M committed to the P2P Protocol public
97%
Over $8M committed to the P2P Protocol public
82%
Over $10M committed to the P2P Protocol publi
74%
Over $12M committed to the P2P Protocol publi
60%
Over $14M committed to the P2P Protocol publi
54%
Over $16M committed to the P2P Protocol publi
51%
Over $18M committed to the P2P Protocol publi
42%
Over $20M committed to the P2P Protocol publi
38%
Over $35M committed to the P2P Protocol publi
35%
Over $25M committed to the P2P Protocol publi
34%
Over $30M committed to the P2P Protocol publi
32%
Over $40M committed to the P2P Protocol publi
23%
Over $50M committed to the P2P Protocol publi
21%
Over $60M committed to the P2P Protocol publi
13%
Over $80M committed to the P2P Protocol publi
10%
Over $140M committed to the P2P Protocol publ
8%
Over $100M committed to the P2P Protocol publ
6%
Over $120M committed to the P2P Protocol publ
5%
Over $160M committed to the P2P Protocol publ
3%
Over $200M committed to the P2P Protocol publ
2%
Over $180M committed to the P2P Protocol publ
1%

25 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

+4.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

54% YES

Mar 19, 2026

Trough probability

26% YES — lowest in period

Mar 26, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

46%

Mar 24, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

57%

Mar 26, 2026

Biggest move: +27.0pp

31% → 57%

Mar 26, 2026

Peak probability

61% YES — highest in period

Mar 20, 2026

Current

57% YES (+10.0pp recent)

Mar 26, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 60%99%
Buy YES@ 60¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 40¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Over $12M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?" at 60% YES / 40% NO. In the last 24 hours, $20K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 60%. The bid-ask spread is 11.00 percentage points. The market closes on July 1, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-26). "Over $12M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 60%, NO 40%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1591769

Correlated Markets

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↑ 0.95

Over $14M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?

↑ 0.95

Over $16M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?

↑ 0.93

Over $10M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?

↑ 0.89

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