ForecastMind
Markets/Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in April?
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Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in April?

Closes May 1, 2026

Polymarket Price

33%YES
68%NO

Volume 24h

$63K

Liquidity

$67K

Bid / Ask

32% / 33%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

33%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in April?" at 33% YES / 67% NO. In the last 24 hours, $63K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 33%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on May 1, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-02). "Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in April?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 33%, NO 67%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1823777

Cross-Venue Intelligence2 venues
VenueYES %vs Poly
Polymarket33%anchor
Manifold

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

+1.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

32% YES

Apr 2, 2026

Current

33% YES (-1.5pp recent)

Apr 2, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 33%99%
Buy YES@ 33¢
Edge

+1.5%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.7%
½ Kelly0.4%
Buy NO@ 68¢

-0.7%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES+1.5% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.7%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this