Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 9?
Closes April 9, 2026
ForecastMind sees this +6.9pp above current market price; market at 74% may be underpriced with macro signals showing BTC +1.4% ↑, ETH +3.6% ↑, S&P +2.9% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$25K
Liquidity
$19K
Bid / Ask
72% / 73%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
75%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 9?" at 75% YES / 25% NO. In the last 24 hours, $25K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 75%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 9, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-08). "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 9?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 75%, NO 25%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1831446
This event has 24 active outcome markets. price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 8?: 100%, price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on April 8?: 100%, price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 8?: 100%.
price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 9?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
23% YES
Apr 7, 2026
Crossed 50% — now favored YES
52%
Apr 7, 2026
Biggest move: +17.5pp
52% → 70%
Apr 7, 2026
Peak probability
79% YES — highest in period
Apr 8, 2026
Current
76% YES (-3.5pp recent)
Apr 8, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.7%
EV per $ wagered
-2.0%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this