Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 12?
Closes April 12, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$9K
Liquidity
$25K
Bid / Ask
1% / 2%
Spread
0.50pp
Expert Signal
2%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 12?" at 1% YES / 99% NO. In the last 24 hours, $9K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.50 percentage points. The market closes on April 12, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-11). "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 12?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 1%, NO 99%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1879428
This event has 38 active outcome markets. price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 10: 100%, price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 10: 100%, price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 10: 100%.
price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 12?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
2% YES
Apr 10, 2026
Current
1% YES (+0.2pp recent)
Apr 11, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-4.8%
EV per $ wagered
+0.1%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this