Will Tisza win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?
Closes April 12, 2026
ForecastMind sees this +1.2pp above current market price; market at 80% may be underpriced with macro signals showing GBP/USD +0.323 ↑, VIX +2.3% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$29K
Liquidity
$25K
Bid / Ask
79% / 80%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
80%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Tisza win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?" at 80% YES / 20% NO. In the last 24 hours, $29K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 80%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 12, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-06). "Will Tisza win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 80%, NO 20%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1503698
This event has 22 active outcome markets. Tisza: 80%, 9: 40%, Tisza: 38%.
Tisza win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hung
Topic Intelligence
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Price History
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Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.6%
EV per $ wagered
-2.4%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this