Military action against Iran ends by April 10, 2026?
Closes April 30, 2026
ForecastMind sees this +2.0pp above current market price; market at 88% may be underpriced with macro signals showing Oil +2.0% ↑, VIX +2.4% ↑, Gold +0.8% ↑.
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$3K
Liquidity
$11K
Bid / Ask
87% / 92%
Spread
4.70pp
Expert Signal
88%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Military action against Iran ends by April 10, 2026?" at 88% YES / 12% NO. In the last 24 hours, $3K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 88%. The bid-ask spread is 4.70 percentage points. The market closes on April 30, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-09). "Military action against Iran ends by April 10, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 88%, NO 12%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1706351
This event has 42 active outcome markets. April 30, 2026: 95%, April 30, 2026: 94%, April 14, 2026: 94%.
Military action against Iran ends by April 10, 2026?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.4%
EV per $ wagered
-2.8%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this